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Typhoon Dolphin and climate change: El Nino and Climate Change are the main factors that boosted its intensity
After a two-week trip across the Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Dolphin brought extreme rain to eastern, central, and northern China. Dolphin's long-lasting and wide circulation made it one of China’s most significant weather events in recent times. Meteorologists have compared it to the devastating Typhoon Doksuri that will hit in 2023. How severe was the rain? Thirteen weather stations in the country broke their records for a single-day rainfall. The average rainfall in?Zhejiang from 7 to 11 August was 215 mm (or 8.46 inches), which is a record for a typhoon that made landfall in eastern China. Taizhou, the city where Dolphin was first spotted, had an average rainfall of 438mm. This is a record. Dolphin continued to break rainfall records in Hubei and Henan Provinces as it moved inland. In the northernmost arc, its rain bands touched the capital Beijing. On Wednesday, 90.7 mm fell in one district, which was the highest amount of rain recorded for this area since 1954. Benjamin Horton, Dean of City University of Hong Kong's School of Energy and Environment, explained that the Dolphin's wide-ranging impact was due to its high circulation and the persistent moisture it left behind even after landfall. Many typhoons weakened quickly after landfall due to the loss of their oceanic heat and friction on land. Dolphin was no longer a windstorm, but the moisture plume it produced and its remnant circulation were still very effective in producing rain," said he. What helped sustain the long life cycle of the dolphin? Dolphin, the furthest-originating typhoon to ever make landfall in China, formed near the International Date Line, approximately 6,000 km east from Zhejiang. The typhoon's 16-day lifespan was three times longer than a normal typhoon. El Nino conditions can cause tropical cyclones to move 'further east' in the Pacific this year, allowing storms to travel a longer path over the warm sea before reaching East Asia. Feng stated that this would give storms more time to intensify and organise, making them more likely to become violent or strong typhoons. "I expect there will be many more storms like this in the coming year." Is climate change causing more violent criminals? Scientists warn climate change has made typhoons more likely to hit East Asia. Horton explained that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. This is roughly 7% higher for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature. Tropical cyclones have a bigger moisture reservoir when surrounding circulation conditions are favorable. He said that in practical terms this meant the same storm type today could produce heavier rain than it would in a cooler climate. According to Feng, the probability of an East Asian typhoon has increased significantly from 33% up to 65%. The global warming of the oceans may also slow down the rate that storms degrade on land. Hui Su is the chair professor of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. "Global warming has increased the ability of the atmosphere to?hold moisture and energy, and it is possible that precipitation will be triggered more often," said Wang Fan. He's a research assistant at the Academy of Geography Sociology and International Studies of the Hong Kong Baptist University. How does 'DOLPHIN' compare to DOKSURI in 2023? Dolphin's path is compared to that of Typhoon Doksuri. Doksuri brought heavy rains to Beijing in 2023. Horton explained that for Doksuri meteorologists had identified a blocking pattern, which involved subtropical high-pressure systems and continental high pressure systems, moisture convergence and low-level lift near the Taihang Mountains, as well as additional moisture input from Typhoon Khanun. Dolphin seems to have followed a pattern similar to Doksuri, as a weakening tropical cyclone continued to bring deep moisture into the interior, where it interacted with topography and regional circulation to increase rainfall. The common lesson learned is that a storm does not need to be intense in terms wind speed to be dangerous. Flood risk can last for days once the circulation has brought large amounts of water inland. It can also shift away from the coast. Reporting by Ethan Wang in Beijing, Additional reporting by Xiuhao Chan in Beijing and Joyce Zhou from Hong Kong. Editing by Kate Mayberry
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Antofagasta's earnings are boosted by copper prices, despite a drop in output
Antofagasta, a Chilean'miner', posted a 27% rise in its core -half-year?earnings? on Thursday.?High prices for copper energy transition material offset lower production. However it cut its output forecast 2026 following a closure at one of its mines. EBITDA (earnings before tax, depreciation, and amortization) for the first half of the year rose to $2.84 from $2.23 billion the previous year. Antofagasta is majority owned by the?Chilean Luksic Family. The company announced a dividend?of 30 cents?per share. This was almost twice as much as an interim dividend last year of 16.6 cents. The London-listed company cut its copper production estimate for 2026 to 625,000 to 655,000 metric tons from its previous forecast of between 650,000 and 700,000 tons. This was due to a closure at its Los Pelambres mine in July, after the Chilean government declared a "state of catastrophe" in 'Coquimbo Region. The miner said that while there was no impact on infrastructure and key equipment, it would need to repair certain water management systems and pipeline platforms. Clara Denina reported. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Norway Oil Industry raises investment outlook to 2026, according to survey
A survey of the Norwegian oil and gas industry showed that their estimates for 2026-2027 had been raised compared to three months ago. According to a survey by the Statistics Office (SSB), the Nordic country's largest business sector expects to spend 275 billion Norwegian crowns in 2026. This is up from 266 in?May and compared with a record of 273 in?year. As a wave major offshore developments near completion and begin production, it is expected that investments will?decrease to 227 billion crowns next year. "The?upwardly revised investment estimate for the year 2027 is primarily driven by higher estimates of costs in production drilling. This is particularly true in fields that are currently in operation, but also field development," SSB stated. The main reason for the expected increase in investment during the second half this year was the production drilling, as companies seek to take advantage of higher oil and gas prices. SSB stated that "the?levels of investment in this category in the second (of 2026), may?be affected by?geopolitical development in?the Middle East." Norway produces over 4 million barrels of oil equivalent each day. This is almost equally split between crude and natural gas. The majority of this oil is exported to Europe. Reporting by Nerijus Adomiaitis and editing by Terje Solsvik.
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Mike Dolan: ROI-AI is creeping onto Fed radar but its footprint so far is very small.
AI is sweeping the markets, construction, and corporate planning. The Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation and employment data shows that its impact on these numbers is too small to make a difference in policy, at least not yet. It's difficult to ignore the AI boom for most financial markets. This year, chip stocks have soared and fluctuated wildly around the globe. The growth of tech earnings has been explosive, and so-called AI Hyperscalers are 'borrowing' hundreds of billions in financing to build out their AI systems. There's no doubt that policymakers will be closely monitoring the long-term?effects? of AI adoption on the demand for workers, the productivity of the economy and the speed limit. One of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces to reform Fed thinking in the long-term focuses on jobs and productivity, and will place the AI revolution under policy scrutiny. More than half way through 2026, the inflation and labor data are showing only slight blows. And measurement issues remain a problem. The July consumer price report released this week showed some pressure on computer and equipment prices. There has been debate within the Fed about the role of "software and accessory" components in driving core goods inflation for the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures basket (PCE). The PCE index weighting of software and accessories, although the methodology is questioned, is 30 times greater than the CPI. In the first half of this year, it accounted for over half of the annualised core goods inflation, which was above 5%. Software and accessories are only 1.2% of the PCE basket. Apple's price increases last month showed that the "chipflation", or shortage of memory in AI data centers, could affect other products containing chips. There are also bottlenecks with the demand for computers and other equipment. Morgan Stanley economists point out that the July CPI showed that tariff-related price increases are peaking, but this has been offset by AI-affected pricing which is pushing goods categories up again. They added that the AI-driven price increase is spreading to other categories than just software and accessories. The July CPI report showed a 3.5% rise in personal computers and peripherals, which was likely due to Apple’s increases. The weight of "information technology hardware and services" in the CPI basket remains at just under 2%, dwarfed by the mega-weightings of housing and shelter, transportation and even apparel. Of course, the wider influence of chip and information-technology inflation beyond these categories bears watching. These costs are directly reflected in the PCE. It will be difficult for the Fed, however, to separate the data from AI and isolate it as a single component. THE OTHER MANDATE Over the next few years, the Fed's other dual mandate -- maximizing employment -- will have the biggest impact on monetary policy. AI could, as some fear, displace workers, rather than help them. This would lead to a weaker wage and household demand. Businesses may also benefit from a boost in productivity. If this were to happen, it would lead the Fed to change its policy. Like inflation, this effect can be seen in certain hiring and job surveys and data cuts, but it is harder to prove its impact on the broader measures of unemployment and job creation. Challenger, Gray and Christmas, a global outplacement firm, reported last Thursday that the number of planned job cuts in July by U.S. employers fell 27%, to 33,429, which was the lowest in two years. It also stated that layoffs continue to be announced, primarily in the?tech. Andy Challenger, the author of the report, said that "artificial intelligence" is still the main story as investments in technology reshape companies. AI adoption is affecting other sectors than just the tech industry. According to the most recent payroll data, insurance jobs have fallen by more than 80,000 in the last year. Deutsche Bank strategists note that according to the Challenger survey, AI is responsible for 30-40% of job cuts in the past three months. In the Challenger report, AI was cited as the main reason for job losses. A third of layoffs were attributed to the technology. This is the fifth month in a row that it has been the top reason. The Fed will also be affected by accurate measurement when it comes time to crunch the numbers. AI could be exerting pressure in a stable economy, as evidenced by the falling unemployment rate and low claims for joblessness. AI will most likely have "big economic impacts in the future, but the Warsh Task Force will have to look into a crystal-ball for clarity instead of relying on the existing data. The data is still too ambiguous to be able to influence the policy meeting in September. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Thyssenkrupp increases lower end of profit forecast on steel and materials demand
Thyssenkrupp raised its 'lower end' profit outlook for 2026 on Thursday, thanks to its'steel, materials and marine trading units, as well as the cost reductions related to its ongoing efficiencies programme. The German company, which produces everything from 'car parts to fertilizer plants', is currently undergoing a radically new structure. It has spun off all of its divisions to improve performance and simplify the firm. Thyssenkrupp expects an adjusted operating profit between EUR600 and EUR900 millions, up from EUR500 to EUR900, as compared to EUR833 in the poll. Axel Hamann, finance chief, said: "The figures prove that our performance improvement measures are working." The third quarter sales were higher than expected at EUR8.79billion, driven also by the materials division that will be spun off in the autumn as well as its steel division which will host a capital market day in September. The adjusted operating?profit for this period rose 18% to EUR183 millions, missing the EUR207 million polled estimate.
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The US claims that more oil is leaving Middle East. But is this true? Russell
How much crude oil leaves the Strait of Hormuz each day? Energy Secretary Chris Wright of the United States claims that nine million barrels of crude oil are exported every day, but companies tracking vessel movements claim it's only half. It is important to know how much crude oil leaves the Middle East through the narrow chokepoint, because it is this oil that travels to Asia. Asia, which is the largest energy-consuming area, has been the hardest hit since the U.S. Israel and the United States attacked Iran on 28 February. Wright stated on X, a social media platform, on August 12, that "thanks for the coordinated efforts of?U.S. Wright said on?social media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the?U.S. He added that by adding an "additional 5 to 7 million bpd from the region via newly-upgraded pipelines and export facility, total oil flow is currently averaging around 15 million bpd." If Wright's figures are correct, the oil market may not be as tight as many analysts think. Wright's figures don't match those of several tracking services. Wright did not specify a specific time period, but Kpler data shows that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were 2.77 million barrels per day for the week starting July 27. The week starting August 3 will see a drop to just 1.74 million bpd. Even the best week of the conflict, the week that began June 29, saw only 6.98 millions bpd. What is the total amount of exports to and from the Middle East region? The total exports from the Middle East include cargoes departing from the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, as well as those from Oman and the Fujairah facility located in the United Arab Emirates. Kpler data indicates crude shipments were 9.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week starting August 3 and an average of 12.26 millions bpd over a period of four weeks. Data from LSEG Oil Research filtered to only show cargoes being loaded, that have been loaded, that are in progress or?have already been discharged' shows Middle East crude imports at 9.33 million bpd during the first 12 days of august, down from 12.35 millions bpd on July. The tracking data indicates that exports to the Middle East are still far below the levels before the conflict, with Kpler showing shipments of 18.7 millions bpd for the three months up until the end February. It would be logical, if Wright's figures are correct, for import data from the Middle East to show an increase. Kpler showed a surge in Middle East crude imports in July. Of the 13.27 million barrels per day (bpd) that arrived, 10.86 million were discharged in Asian ports. The imports of crude oil from the Middle East were up from 9.26 million barrels per day in April. This was the lowest Kpler data since 2013. However, the number for July was still far below the average of 18.71 million barrels per day in the three months prior to the Iran War. This was partly due to the fact that a lot of tankers were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire was declared between Iran and the United States in mid-June. MIND THE GAP The vessel tracking data shows a difference between what they see and what Wright claims is being shipped out of the Middle East. Three main explanations are possible for the gap. 1. Wright's department provided the correct numbers, but tracking services miss some clandestine shipments which are done out of sight. 2. Wright and his department genuinely believe in their numbers but they are 'discounting shipments. 3. Wright is aware that his numbers are incorrect, but he continues to disseminate the information because it fits the narrative of U.S. president Donald Trump who wants to portray the war as going well. Wright could resolve the first possibility by sharing his knowledge of what he knows, such as vessel names, cargo details, and the loading and discharge ports. The tracking service could then compare the data to determine where discrepancies lie. The second possibility, which is the most likely one, involves the U.S. Navy doubling-counting exports that are transferred from ship to ship. Wright's third option is the most disturbing. And doubts will continue to persist as long as he doesn't present evidence. You can also 'wait a few more weeks' to see what the import numbers are from various countries who buy crude oil from the Middle East. The arrival numbers will reflect this if 15 million barrels per day are truly leaving the region. This is because tankers take time to travel from one destination to another. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Metal prices fall due to stronger dollar
Copper and the industrial metals complex fell on Thursday, as the dollar strengthened. This was after U.S. data on inflation?didn't affect expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision next month, which may influence economic activity. The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.32% to $14,086.5 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.55%, to 107 580 yuan (15,951.72) per ton. Investors judged that the mild U.S. consumer inflation data for July was not enough to change the Fed's hawkish stance. The U.S. Dollar Index ticked up by 0.05%, to 100. Demand for U.S. treasuries was solid, supporting the dollar and weighing on greenback-denominated ?commodities by making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Inventory outflows at the London Metal Exchange (LME) supported copper prices amid uncertainty about possible U.S. tariffs for refined copper imports. David Wilson, BNP Paribas' head of commodity strategy, stated that "a lot of metal is still being sucked into the U.S." The Yangshan copper premium is a major metals consumer in China. The red metal was further pressured by the fact that the barometer of the country's demand for imports, fell on Wednesday to its lowest level in four weeks. The benchmark LME and SHFE aluminium prices dropped almost 1%. This is the second consecutive drop for the light metal after a seven session rally. Supply concerns were eased by improving supply prospects from the Middle East - a major global supplier of aluminium - and the anticipated'return' of some war-damaged smelting capacities. The supply concerns were eased despite the impasse in the peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S., which threatens to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Wilson stated that "there is more uncertainty regarding a peace agreement, even though smelters from the Gulf are shipping materials out via Saudi Arabia and Oman." Zinc fell 0.64% among?LME Metals. Lead slipped 0.24%. Nickel dropped 0.93%. Tin lost 0.69%. Zinc fell 0.29% among SHFE metals. Lead gained 0.57%. Nickel dropped 0.27%. Tin lost 0.96%.
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The morning bid for EUROPE is a cool down of the Fed bets, while BOJ wagers are on fire.
Satoshi sugiyama gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like today. After all the hype, the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday was in line with the expectations. It may even have been a bit anticlimactic. Coupled with ?softer-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls, ?it ?has dampened money-market bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike. The Bank of Japan's September rate hike expectations were boosted by Thursday's Japanese wholesale price data. The 7.2% rise year-over-year in July indicated that price pressures are still alive and resilient. This is due to the strong demand caused by the AI boom, as well as the higher costs of raw materials from the Middle East War. Asian stocks were mostly steady in the morning session. South Korean stocks reached their highest level in three weeks due to chip stocks. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose nearly 1%. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.61% during the midday break. Early European trades saw the Euro Stoxx 50 futures rise by 0.35%. German DAX futures also rose by 0.26%, and FTSE Futures climbed 0.27%. Forecasters lowered their outlook for global demand this year, citing the wider fallout from the Middle East conflict. United States and Iran remain at odds over how to end the conflict. They have conflicting claims regarding?control of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude fell 1.3% to $82.19 per barrel and Brent was down 1.16 percent to $87.95. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant governor Christopher Kent warned in Sydney?of the risks of further policy tightening during a? NEXT Newsmaker, saying that inflation risks remain high and that "a lot" of things would need to be right in order to avert another rate increase. Key developments that could impact markets on Thursday include: - UK Q4-June GDP, Eurozone, UK industrial production, U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
France invests 50 million euros in Imerys Lithium project
Imerys announced that France would 'invest 50 million euro ($59.61 million) in a'minority stake' in Imerys lithium mine project. Other investors could join France in this country's flagship battery metal project.
The first time the minerals group announced the Emili Project was in 2022. It aimed to produce 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide annually, which could meet the lithium needs of 700,000 electric cars annually.
Imerys announced on Wednesday that the French government's investment would help to?cover feasibility before a final decision is made on investment in the mine. It is currently expected to begin production?in 2020.
Alessandro Dazza, CEO of the company, told reporters that they expect to bring in more investors to finance the lithium project.
He said that it would not necessarily hold a majority share, but would consider itself the logical option to run the future site.
THE TOTAL COST OF PROJECTS RAISED TO 1,8 BILLION EUROS
Imerys has increased its initial estimate of the cost of the project from 1 billion to 1.8 billion, but Dazza stated that he expects the final figure to be "significantly lower" than the current estimate.
The Emili project involves developing a mine underground beneath an existing Kaolin mine in Central France along with a?processing facility.
Imerys said late in October that it was in exclusive discussions with a potential buyer to sell a minor stake in the project.
Last year, the timeline for?starting production? was?pushed back to 2030 instead of 2028. This is partly because public debate about the project's impact on the environment.
(source: Reuters)